Table 2 Coefficients, incidence risk ratios (IRR) and their 95% confidence intervals for the final three models using the count of positive confirmed cases in the initial cull as dependent variable and the centred-log-ratio (clr) transformations of the proportions of genotypes, NSP types and alleles.

Coef.

IRR

95%CI

Coef.

IRR

95%CI

Coef.

IRR

95%CI

constant

0.7

-0.5-1.9

-0.7

-2.1-0.7

-0.3

-2-1.3

clr % ARR/ARR

-0.5

0.5

0.4-0.8

clr % ARR/AHQ

0.5

1.7

1.2-2.2

clr % AHQ/VRQ

0.2

1.2

0.99-1.5

clr % ARH/VRQ

0.3

1.3

1.08-1.7

clr % ARQ/VRQ

1.7

1.9

1.5-2.6

clr % NSP V

1.2

3.4

2.2-5.2

clr % ARH

0.8

2.3

1.2-4.4

clr % ARQ

1.3

3.7

1.2-11.6

clr % AHQ

1

2.7

1.2-5.9

clr % VRQ

1.4

4

2-8

Country

Wales

1.7

5.8

2.3-14.9

1.6

5

2.1-12.1

1.5

4.4

1.8-10.9

Scotland

-1.1

0.3

0.08-1.4

0.8

2.3

0.3-17.8

1.2

3.4

0.6-20.8

# flocks (baseline: 1)

2

0.9

2.6

0.9-7.7

0.7

2

0.8-5.4

0.7

2

0.7-5.4

3

0.7

2

0.6-6.4

0.6

1.8

0.6-5.5

0.5

1.7

0.5-5.3

4 or more

1.7

5.4

1.9-15.6

1.4

3.9

1.4-10.7

1.3

3.8

1.3-11.3

# animals (baseline: < 300)

300-1000

1.5

4.3

1.2-16.1

> 1000

1.5

4.7

1.3-16.7

Wales × 2 flocks

-1.9

0.1

0.04-0.5

-1.5

0.2

0.07-0.7

-1.3

0.2

0.08-0.8