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Table 4 Proportion (%) of runs having 0 to more than 3 clinically affected and/or subclinically infected animals (Is) detected (sensitivity of 0.5 and specificity of 1 for the tests used for Is animals detection) after 1 to 5 years of simulation in herds with spontaneous fadeout or persistent infection

From: Predicting fadeout versus persistence of paratuberculosis in a dairy cattle herd for management and control purposes: a modelling study

 

Cumulated number of animals (nr)

% of runs with nr clinically affected animals

% of runs with nr clinically affected & detected subclinically infected animals

  

Time (in years)

Time (in years)

  

1

2

3

4

5

1

2

3

4

5

Proportion among herds with fadeout (282 runs)

0

75

67

64

62

62

40

37

37

35

35

 

1

25

33

36

36

35

50

48

45

45

44

 

2

0

0

0

1

2

10

14

17

17

17

 

≥ 3

0

0

0

1

1

0

0

1

3

4

Proportion among persistently infected herds (118 runs)

0

48

23

9

5

2

24

8

2

1

1

 

1

52

75

67

40

18

46

51

30

14

3

 

2

0

2

15

15

19

60

34

25

22

8

 

≥ 3

0

0

9

40

61

0

7

43

63

88