From: Risk based culling for highly infectious diseases of livestock
Scenario | Culling strategy | Culled infected | Total farms culled | Epidemic in days | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Decreased capacity | Risk, thresh = 0.001 | 374 | (329;420) | 996 | (964;1027) | 72 | (71;74) |
 | Ring 1 km, In - > Out 1) | +46 | (32;60) | +223 | (209;237) | +4 | (3;5) |
 | Ring 3 km, In - > Out 2) | +57 | (43;71) | +704 | (690;718) | +4 | (3;5) |
Increased capacity | Risk, thresh = 0.001 | 161 | (145;176) | 1064 | (1038;1090) | 47 | (46;47) |
 | Ring 1 km, In - > Out | +20 | (15;25) | -70 | (-83;-56) | +8 | (7;9) |
 | Ring 3 km, In - > Out | +16 | (11;21) | +410 | (396;423) | +1 | (0;2) |
Increased R0 | Risk, thresh = 0.001 | 460 | (412;507) | 1250 | (1224;1276) | 65 | (64;66) |
 | Ring 1 km, In - > Out | +64 | (50;77) | +108 | (98;119) | +5 | (4;6) |
 | Ring 3 km, In - > Out | +61 | (47;74) | +543 | (532;553) | +2 | (1;3) |
Decreased R0 | Risk, thresh = 0.001 | 100 | (91;110) | 798 | (771;825) | 44 | (43;45) |
 | Ring 1 km, In - > Out | +13 | (9;16) | +4 | (-12;20) | +7 | (6;9) |
 | Ring 3 km, In - > Out | +14 | (10;17) | +509 | (493;525) | +3 | (1;4) |
Increased tail | Risk, thresh = 0.001 | 183 | (169;197) | 1076 | (1050;1103) | 59 | (58;60) |
 | Ring 1 km, In - > Out | +23 | (16;30) | +40 | (25;55) | +5 | (4;6) |
 | Ring 3 km, In - > Out | +18 | (11;25) | +632 | (617;647) | +2 | (1;3) |
Decreased tail | Risk, thresh = 0.001 | 220 | 193;247 | 958 | (986;929) | 50 | (49;51) |
 | Ring 1 km, In - > Out | +35 | (27;42) | +34 | (19;48) | +7 | (6;8) |
 | Ring 3 km, In - > Out | +29 | (21;36) | +396 | (381;411) | +3 | (2;4) |
Less clustering | Risk, thresh = 0.001 | 191 | (175;206) | 1003 | (983;1023) | 55 | (54;56) |
 | Ring 1 km, In - > Out | +33 | (23;44) | -14 | (-32;4) | +8 | (7;10) |
 | Ring 3 km, In - > Out | +31 | (21;42) | +443 | (426;461) | +3 | (1;4) |
More clustering | Risk, thresh = 0.001 | 277 | (222;332) | 1127 | (1079;1176) | 57 | (55;59) |
 | Ring 1 km, In - > Out | +43 | (31;55) | +186 | (163;210) | +6 | (4;7) |
 | Ring 3 km, In - > Out | +38 | (26;50) | +624 | (601;648) | +4 | (3;5) |
Misspecified kernel | Risk, thresh = 0.001 | 255 | (231;278) | 1095 | (1069;1121) | 59 | (58;60) |
 | Ring 1 km, In - > Out | +24 | (15;32) | +19 | (6;32) | +4 | (3;5) |
 | Ring 3 km, In - > Out | +25 | (16;33) | +397 | (384;410) | +1 | (0;2) |