Table 4 Model experimentation and scenarios analysed
Scenarios tested | Summary | Parameters varied from baseline |
|---|---|---|
Baseline | Baseline parameters used. No surveillance or control used. | NA |
Aerial culling | Baseline parameters used but culling introduced at variable intensities and culling zone widths. | Size of culling zone width: 10, 20, 30, 60, 100 km. Probability of culling a herd: 20, 40, 60, 80, 99% |
Aerial vaccination | Baseline parameters used but vaccination introduced at variable intensities and vaccination zone widths. | Size of vaccination zone width: 10, 20, 30, 60, 100 km. Probability of vaccinating half a herd: 20, 40, 60, 80, 99% |
Low virulence CSF | A CSF strain of moderate virulence was introduced. | The within herd model (Model 1) was used with 30% mortality assumption to generate new parameters for the between herd model. |
| Â | Â | Herd immune period increased to 135, 666 4003 days (lowest, most likely, highest). Probability that all individuals in a herd die of CSF decreased (0.10). |
Comparison between non-spatial and spatial modelling assumptions | A non-spatial model was parameterised as for the spatial modelling, except non-spatial disease transmission was assumed using a non-spatial, homogenously mixing population. | Disease transmission occurred homogenously using a probability derived from an equation rather than through spatial proximity (see Additional file 2). A baseline and culling scenario was conducted. |