Model | Model code | Abortion incidence | Environmental bacterial load | Extinction rate (%) | Time to extinction (weeks) | Prevalence of shedders (%) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mean | median, | mean | median, | mean | median, | mean | median, | |||
5-95% | 5-95% | 5-95% | 5-95% | |||||||
Variations of the model for goat and cow farm infection | ||||||||||
m1 | 770 goats | 6.2 | 6.1, 4.4–8.1 | 100 | 99, 53–142 | 29 | 145 | 111, 18–296 | 30 | 30, 25–34 |
m2 | 50 goats | 5.6 | 6.0, 0–12 | 10 | 10, 4–14 | 32 | 162 | 144, 21–366 | 26 | 26, 7–45 |
m3 | 770 cows | 8.0 | 7.9, 6.6–9.8 | 269 | 277, 184–320 | 13 | 67 | 51, 16–156 | 44 | 45, 40–48 |
m4 | 50 cows | 7.1 | 6.0, 2.0–14 | 21 | 20, 14–28 | 21 | 102 | 72, 27–225 | 43 | 42, 28–57 |
Scenarios of sensitivity analysis of goat farm infection | ||||||||||
s1 | TimeIntro | 6.1 | 6.4, 4.4–8.1 | 83 | 90, 40–119 | 40 | 102 | 99, 1–280 | 29 | 30, 23–34 |
s2 | TimeBirth | 6.2 | 6.2, 4.2–8.5 | 82 | 88, 23–116 | 50 | 74 | 37, 5–219 | 29 | 30, 24–34 |
s3 | ProbAbUp | 24.8 | 24.8, 22–27.3 | 229 | 231, 209–246 | 4 | 25 | 24, 7–44 | 33 | 33, 29–36 |
s4 | ProbAbLow | 3.5 | 3.5, 2.4–4.7 | 82 | 85, 22–126 | 34 | 128 | 106, 21–317 | 28 | 29, 21–34 |
s5 | ProbInfUp | 8.3 | 8.3, 6.8–10.1 | 267 | 267, 255–282 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 52 | 52, 49–55 |
s6 | NoYoung | 6.4 | 6.4, 3.6–8.3 | 86 | 92, 18–129 | 34 | 172 | 162, 42–333 | 28 | 29, 15–35 |