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Table 3 Overview of model outputs

From: Dairy goat demography and Q fever infection dynamics

Model

Model code

Abortion incidence

Environmental bacterial load

Extinction rate (%)

Time to extinction (weeks)

Prevalence of shedders (%)

  

mean

median,

mean

median,

 

mean

median,

mean

median,

   

5-95%

 

5-95%

  

5-95%

 

5-95%

Variations of the model for goat and cow farm infection

m1

770 goats

6.2

6.1, 4.4–8.1

100

99, 53–142

29

145

111, 18–296

30

30, 25–34

m2

50 goats

5.6

6.0, 0–12

10

10, 4–14

32

162

144, 21–366

26

26, 7–45

m3

770 cows

8.0

7.9, 6.6–9.8

269

277, 184–320

13

67

51, 16–156

44

45, 40–48

m4

50 cows

7.1

6.0, 2.0–14

21

20, 14–28

21

102

72, 27–225

43

42, 28–57

Scenarios of sensitivity analysis of goat farm infection

s1

TimeIntro

6.1

6.4, 4.4–8.1

83

90, 40–119

40

102

99, 1–280

29

30, 23–34

s2

TimeBirth

6.2

6.2, 4.2–8.5

82

88, 23–116

50

74

37, 5–219

29

30, 24–34

s3

ProbAbUp

24.8

24.8, 22–27.3

229

231, 209–246

4

25

24, 7–44

33

33, 29–36

s4

ProbAbLow

3.5

3.5, 2.4–4.7

82

85, 22–126

34

128

106, 21–317

28

29, 21–34

s5

ProbInfUp

8.3

8.3, 6.8–10.1

267

267, 255–282

1

1

1

52

52, 49–55

s6

NoYoung

6.4

6.4, 3.6–8.3

86

92, 18–129

34

172

162, 42–333

28

29, 15–35

  1. Abortion incidence: incidence of abortions during the 10th simulation year in non-extinct herds; Environmental load AUC: area under the curve of the environmental load over 10 years simulation in non-extinct herds, expressed as percentage of the mean AUC of model m1; Ext. rate (%): percentage of herds with extinction of infection after 10 years simulation; Time to extinction: the number of weeks from introduction of an infected animal in the herd until extinction of the infection; Prevalence of shedders: prevalence of shedders at t = 520 in non-extinct herds.