Figure 3

Diagram summarizing the main relationships between climate factors, bird numbers and AIV prevalence. Arrows show the direction of the effects, including potential time-lags. The colour of the arrows indicates the direction of the correlations and whether the relationship is direct or indirect (white—direct negative effect; grey—mixed direct effects (positive effect of one species and no effects for the two other species); black—positive indirect effect). The close link between rainfall and ENSO drought/wet is reflected by their partial overlap in the diagram.