Figure 5
Comparison of observed and simulated VTEC O157 infection dynamics. Outcome from a stochastic simulation of the spread of VTEC O157 in the complete Swedish cattle population during 2005-07-01 to 2013-12-31. The within-herd disease spread was modelled with a SISE compartment model with the two disease states: susceptible (S) and infected (I) and E representing the environmental compartment contaminated with VTEC O157 by infected animals. Comparison of the observed proportion of VTEC O157 positive holdings in a longitudinal observational study of the VTEC O157 status [25] with simulated status. The simulated status is based on a SISE compartment model. Each figure shows a generalised additive model (GAM) with a 95% confidence level of the proportion positive holdings against the day of the year for observed and simulated data. Top one trajectory with a constant decay of the environmental infectious pressure throughout the year. Bottom one trajectory where the decay is varied in each of the four quarters of the year.