Figure 6

Comparison of the simulated and observed distributions of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (Map) infected adults per infection state i n infected dairy cattle herds. A/Simulated mean distribution over time in persistently infected herds as predicted by a Map spread model within a dairy cattle herd; B/Mean percentage of tested adults per infection states based on individual life long determined status in 59 herds at enrolment in a paratuberculosis control program in France, before any control measure is implemented, according to the range of the initial within-herd prevalence. Animals tested twice or less and having negative results are assumed to be either resistant (state not shown) (B1: optimistic option) or latently infected (B2: pessimistic option).