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Table 3 Estimated parameter values in within- and between-farm transmission models.

From: A systematic review of mechanistic models used to study avian influenza virus transmission and control

Reference

Subtype

Model

Transmission rate \({\varvec{\beta}}\)

Reproduction number

Within-farm transmission

 [35]

HP/H5N1

PBM/FD

Min: 0.60 (0.43–0.84)

Max: 2.30 (1.92–2.76)

Min: 2.18 (1.94–2.46)

Max: 3.49 (2.70–4.50)

 [57]

HP/H5N2

PBM/FD

3.2 (2.3–4.3)

12.8 (9.2–17.2)

 [62]

HP/H5N8

PBM/FD

Min: 0.95 (0.3–2.3)

Max: 34.4 (27.3–44.1)

Min: 5.225 (1.65–12.65)

Max: 86 (68.25–110.25)

 [64]

HP/H5N8

PBM/FD

4.1 (2.8–5.8)

17.5 (9.4–29.3)

 [65]

HP/H5N8

PBM/FD

Min: 0.661 (0.627–0.696)

Max: 3.387 (1.774–2.071)

Min: 2.642 (2.507–2.785)

Max: 13.548 (12.832–14.304)

 [73]

HP/H7N7

PBM/FD

4.50 (2.68–7.57)

–

 [74]

HP/H7N7

IBM/FD

1.9 (0.61–8.1)

7.6 (2.44–32.4)

 [76]

LP/H5N2

PBM/FD

Min: 0.6 (0.4–1.0)

Max: 3.9 (1.2–5.8)

Min: 7.068 (4.712–11.78)

Max: 45.942 (14.136–68.324)

 [77]

LP/H7N3

PBM/FD

Min: 0.50 (0.45–0.55)

Max: 0.72 (0.68–0.77)

Min: 4.7 (3.0–8.6)

Max: 5.6 (4.3–7.7)

Between-farm transmission

 [38]

HP/H5N1

IBM/DD

0.99 (0.76–1.12) × 10–6

–

 [41]

HP/H5N1

PBM/DD

Min: 1.4 × 10–8

Max: 40 × 10–8

Min: 0.55

Max: 15.7

 [42]

HP/H5N1

IBM/DD

0.429 (probability)

–

 [43]

HP/H5N1

HP/H5N8

HP/H5N6

PBM/DD

–

Min: 0.03 (0–0.98)

Max: 2.20 (1.51–3.16)

 [46, 47]

HP/H5N1

IBM/DD

Min: 1.71 (0.586–3.63) × 10–10

Max: 1.06 (0.0729–3.78) × 10–7

–

 [48]

HP/H5N1

PBM/FD

Min: 0.08 (0.06–0.10)

Max: 0.11 (0.08–0.20)

Min: 0.85 (0.77–1.02)

Max: 0.96 (0.72–1.20)

 [56]

HP/H5N2

IBM/DD

0.0061 (0.0025–0.0137)

–

 [59]

HP/H5N6

IBM/DD

0.0012 (0.0001–0.1)

–

 [60]

HP/H5N6

HP/H5N8

IBM/DD

Min: 0.00007–Max: 0.00707

–

 [63]

HP/H5N8

IBM/FD

Min: 0.23 (0.16–0.31)

Max: 0.53 (0.37–0.72)

–

 [67]

HP/H7N1

IBM/DD

Min: 0.0009 (0.0005–0.0013)

Max: 0.0155 (0.0078–0.0232)

–

 [68]

HP/H7N3

PBM/DD

Min: 0 – Max: 0.00238

4.8

 [69]

HP/H7N7

PBM/DD*

Min: 0.17 (0.1–0.2)

Max: 0.47 (0.3–0.7)

Min: 1.2 (0.6–1.9)

Max: 6.5 (3.1–9.9)

 [70]

HP/H7N7

IBM/DD

Min: 0.076

Max: 0.336

–

 [71]

HP/H7N7

IBM/DD

0.002 (0.0012–0.0039)

–

 [72]

HP/H7N7

PBM/DD

1.7 (1.5–2.0) × 10–4

1.33

 [74]

HP/H7N7

IBM/DD

0.0039 (0.0023–0.0076)

–

  1. FD: frequency-dependence (\(\beta\) is in day−1); DD: density-dependence (\(\beta\) is in farm−1.day−1).
  2. This model assumed a force of infection of the form \(\beta \frac{I\left(t\right)}{N}\), where \(N\) was a constant (the initial population size). Although assuming a density-dependent contact rate [69], the unit of \(\beta\) was the same as for frequency-dependent models, here in day−1.
  3. Values of the reproduction number were not indicated when the average duration of the infectious period was not provided, or when the transmission between farms was distance dependent (because the reproduction number is farm specific).
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Veterinary Research

ISSN: 1297-9716